The U.S. ban on copycat versions of Novo Nordisk’s weight-loss drug Wegovy has resulted in early increased demand but investors want more evidence of growth before the company reports earnings in August.
The number of new Wegovy prescriptions increased by 33% after the FDA banned compounded alternatives on May 22 and reached 181,000 prescriptions in the latest weekly data from IQVIA. Zepbound from Eli Lilly maintains a lead of more than 130,000 prescriptions despite Wegovy’s recent prescription increase.
The modest recovery comes at a pivotal time. Novo’s stock price has decreased by about 60% since its 2024 peak and the sudden departure of CEO Lars Fruergaard Jorgensen in May has intensified market concerns. Investors expect the company to report its August 6 earnings results to determine if guidance will remain unchanged.
Barclays analyst Emily Field described Novo’s current phase as “show me,” with confidence eroded after a string of setbacks. The sales data from IQVIA does not include sales from Novo’s direct-to-consumer platform but analysts predict this channel will grow through deep price reductions.
Some market analysts predict Novo will need to reduce its forecast predictions despite the recent sales increase. Strong execution during the second half will help investors regain confidence about the company’s long-term prospects despite low expectations.
